The next Five Year Plan has just begun in Oman with the new 2011 fiscal year. This plan, the eighth of its kind, is the second to last plan period in the Vision 2020 strategic goal. Government targets include a five percent surge in real GDP growth throughout the plan and expectations for inflation put the rate at four percent for the same time period.
Total revenue should grow at a steady pace and is expected to reach a compound annual growth rate (or CAGR) of five percent between 2010 and 2015. Covering the period of this eighth plan, oil revenue calculations will be based on estimates of the average annual production rates of 897,000 bpd (barrels per day) and also assumes that a price of $59 per barrel will be the average.
Revenues are expected to swell by around 5.7 percent (oil) and 4.1 percent (natural gas) over the course of the period from 2010 to 2015. In that same time frame the current revenue should rise by around 3.2 percent. The annual average of overall revenues for the government sits at an RO7,499 million estimate for the period covered by the plan.
During the eighth plan, total expenditure estimates have considered contributions to the social sector, growth within the investments of assorted projects and the upcoming production schedules for both oil and natural gas. For the plan period overall current expenditures should hit a 5.5 percent CAGR from 2010 to 2015.
Nominal GDP in Oman is expected to rise 18.7 percent on a year-by-year basis, due to rising oil prices and indications of growth within infrastructure. That figure should hit RO21.4 billion.
Based on the Oman Economic Outlook report put out by the team at GBCM (Gulf Baadr Capital Market), Oman’s government clearly continues to push developments within the non-oil sectors in a strong effort to see improvements in economic diversity. Objectives within the plan show that sectors such as industry, the fisheries, tourism and agriculture are being developed.Paul Holdsworth, Staff Writer, Gulf Jobs Market News